Get Expert Player Predictions for Mariners vs Blue Jays – Friday April 18, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays

On April 18, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around the .500 mark, with the Blue Jays holding an 11-8 record and the Mariners at 10-9. The Blue Jays are enjoying a solid season, while the Mariners are performing above average. This game marks the first in a series between these two squads.

In their last outings, the Blue Jays secured a 3-1 victory against their opponents, while the Mariners won a high-scoring affair, 11-7. Bowden Francis is projected to take the mound for Toronto, and while his ERA of 3.71 is respectable, his advanced stats suggest he may have benefitted from some good fortune this season, ranking him as the 156th best starting pitcher in MLB. Francis’s tendency to allow fly balls (37% FB rate) could be troublesome against a powerful Mariners lineup that has hit 26 home runs, ranking 6th in the league.

On the other side, Seattle will counter with Bryan Woo, who has been impressive with a 2.84 ERA and a solid 2-0 record. Woo’s status as the 34th best starting pitcher in MLB reflects his strong performances, although his xFIP indicates he might face challenges ahead.

The projections lean slightly in favor of the Blue Jays, who boast the 12th best offense in MLB, but they rank just 26th in home runs, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on Francis’s fly ball tendencies. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense ranks 13th overall, bolstered by their 7th best home run count and a potent ability to draw walks, which could exploit Francis’s control issues.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, bettors may find this matchup closely contested, especially with the Blue Jays’ moneyline at -130, implying a win probability of 54%. The Mariners, at +110, reflect a competitive outlook as well. This game could be a pivotal moment for both teams as they continue to navigate the early season.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Bryan Woo has put up a 3.41 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the variables most within a pitcher’s control) since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Cal Raleigh has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 22.4% seasonal rate to 50% in the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Bowden Francis’s 91.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.4-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Andres Gimenez has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games at home (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.30 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 64% ROI)