Get Expert Player Predictions for Cubs vs Cardinals – Monday June 23, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on June 23, 2025, this National League Central matchup carries significant weight for both teams. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 42-36, are having an above-average season, while the Cubs lead the division with a strong 46-31 record. This game marks the beginning of their three-game series, and both squads will be looking to set the tone early.

In their last outing, the Cardinals’ Matthew Liberatore struggled despite a solid performance, finishing with a complete game but ultimately taking the loss. Liberatore has had a mixed season, holding a 4-6 record with a 4.08 ERA. His 3.05 FIP suggests he has been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. However, he projects to allow an average of 3.0 earned runs and 5.8 hits today, which could be a concern against the Cubs’ potent offense, ranked 4th best in MLB.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Ben Brown to the mound. Brown’s season has not been as successful, with a 5.57 ERA and a 4-5 record. His projections also leave room for improvement, as he is expected to allow 2.5 earned runs and 4.9 hits. Despite his struggles, the Cubs’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, boasting the 5th best home run total in MLB and a 3rd best ranking in stolen bases.

With both teams having below-average bullpens—ranked 20th and 23rd respectively—this game could see plenty of scoring. The current Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an offensive showdown. Betting markets have both teams at -110, indicating a close contest, but the Cubs’ superior record and offensive prowess may give them the edge as they look to capitalize on the Cardinals’ pitching woes.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ben Brown has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Over the past two weeks, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs batters as a unit grade out 7th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 10.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Among all starters, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2083 rpm is in the 9th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Victor Scott II’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 85.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 80.7-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.70 Units / 18% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+12.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.00 Units / 18% ROI)