Get Expert Player Predictions for Cardinals vs Nationals – Friday May 9, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Washington Nationals

On May 9, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are looking to improve their standings, with the Nationals currently at 17-21 and the Cardinals at 19-19. The Nationals have struggled this season, while the Cardinals are hovering around .500, showcasing a middle-of-the-pack performance.

In their last outing, the Nationals’ Mitchell Parker is projected to start against the Cardinals’ Erick Fedde. Parker, despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a solid ERA of 3.48 this season. However, his 5.45 xFIP suggests that luck may have played a role in his success, indicating potential struggles ahead. On the other hand, Fedde’s ERA stands at 4.78, and his 5.68 xFIP also hints at an underwhelming performance.

The Nationals boast the 14th best offense in MLB, with a respectable 6th ranking in stolen bases. Their best hitter has been hot lately, with a .423 batting average over the past week, making him a key player to watch. Conversely, the Cardinals come in with the 10th best offense, highlighted by their 1st ranking in team batting average, suggesting they have the potential to score runs in bunches.

As for the betting line, the Nationals are set at -115, implying a win probability of 51%, while the Cardinals sit at -105 with a 49% chance. The Game Total is set at a reasonable 8.5 runs, indicating expectations of a competitive matchup. With the Nationals projected to score 4.30 runs, they might just edge out the Cardinals today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Among all starting pitchers, Erick Fedde’s fastball spin rate of 2065 rpm is in the 12th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.5) suggests that Pedro Pages has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his 17.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starter, Mitchell Parker has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Josh Bell has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)