Get Expert Player Predictions for Braves vs Brewers – July 30, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves gear up for the second game of their series on July 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Brewers, boasting a 61-45 record, are enjoying a great season and currently lead the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Braves, with a 56-49 record, are having an above-average season and are in the thick of the Wild Card race.

On the mound for the Brewers will be Joe Ross, who has had a mixed season with a 4.50 ERA and a 2-4 record over nine starts. Despite his struggles, his 3.93 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Ross is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while striking out 5.0 batters on average. However, his high hit and walk projections (5.2 hits and 1.3 walks) are concerning.

The Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, whose season has been even more tumultuous. With a 6.35 ERA and a 1-4 record over eight starts, Elder has struggled mightily. However, his 4.23 xFIP indicates that he too has been unlucky and might improve. Elder is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.7 walks while striking out 4.7 batters.

Offensively, the Brewers have the edge. Ranked 10th in overall offense, 5th in batting average, and 2nd in stolen bases, Milwaukee’s lineup is both potent and versatile. Jackson Chourio has been particularly hot, hitting .450 with a 1.250 OPS over the last week.

The Braves’ offense, while solid, ranks 15th overall. They excel in power, ranking 10th in home runs, but lag behind in batting average (17th) and stolen bases (28th). Orlando Arcia has been their standout performer recently, boasting a .389 average and a 1.222 OPS over the last week.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Brewers have a slight edge with a 51% win probability, projecting 4.71 runs. The Braves, projected to score 4.85 runs, have a 49% win probability, making this a close and exciting matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Bryce Elder’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (90.4 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (89.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Despite posting a .412 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been very fortunate given the .060 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Joe Ross – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Joe Ross has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -8.0 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Rhys Hoskins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 100 games (+10.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 104 games (+21.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)