Get Expert Player Predictions for Astros vs Royals – Sunday April 27, 2025

Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals

On April 27, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Houston Astros at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the third game of this series. Both teams find themselves teetering with average records; the Royals are 14-14, while the Astros sit at 13-13. Despite their struggles, the Astros should feel confident going into this matchup, having secured a victory in their previous contest.

Kris Bubic, projected to start for Kansas City, has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a solid 1.45 ERA and a #53 ranking among MLB starting pitchers. However, his 3.29 xFIP suggests that he may not maintain this level of performance going forward. Bubic’s average projections indicate he might pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which could put pressure on a Royals offense that ranks 29th in MLB.

On the other hand, Hunter Brown will take the mound for Houston. Brown has been nearly untouchable with a phenomenal 1.16 ERA, ranking him as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections are good, suggesting he’ll pitch 5.8 innings while also allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, both pitchers are projected to allow 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks, which could lead to some scoring opportunities.

One of the more compelling angles is Houston’s ability to exploit Kansas City’s offensive weaknesses. The Royals have struggled significantly, ranking dead last (30th) in home runs this season, making them ill-equipped to capitalize against a pitcher like Brown, who has a high groundball rate. Conversely, the Astros offense ranks 25th, but they possess the potential to outpace the Royals’ lackluster attack, as indicated by the low Game Total of 7.5 runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Hunter Brown has utilized his cut-fastball 11% less often this season (5.9%) than he did last season (16.9%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Over the last week, Yainer Diaz’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Kris Bubic’s 91.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 19th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.1-mph EV last season has decreased to 84.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s matchup, Michael Massey is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)