Get Expert Player Predictions for Astros vs Blue Jays – September 11, 2025

Houston Astros

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive spirits. The Blue Jays have an impressive 83-62 record this season, currently positioned well in the playoff race, while the Astros sit at 79-67, striving to maintain an above-average season. In their most recent outing, the Blue Jays emerged victorious, further solidifying their standing as they look to capitalize on their home field advantage at Rogers Centre.

On the mound, Toronto is set to start Kevin Gausman, who has had a solid year with a 3.63 ERA and a Power Rankings placement as the 88th best starting pitcher in the league, indicating he’s above average. Gausman has made 28 starts this year with a 9-10 win-loss record. However, his projections for today’s game suggest he may allow 2.9 earned runs and give up around 5.7 hits, which could be a concern against a respectable Astros lineup.

Conversely, Houston will counter with Cristian Javier, who has struggled this season. With a 4.43 ERA and a troubling xFIP of 5.36, projections indicate he may have been fortunate thus far. Javier’s projected performance is concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs and 4.7 hits.

The Blue Jays boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their #1 ranking in team batting average. This gives them a distinct advantage over the Astros, who rank 13th in overall offensive performance. Additionally, Toronto’s bullpen ranks 6th, while Houston’s sits at 23rd, further tipping the scales in favor of the Blue Jays. With a moneyline of -150, Toronto’s high implied team total of 4.62 runs reflects their offensive prowess, making them a strong play in this matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  In his last outing, Cristian Javier was rolling and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Houston Astros offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Kevin Gausman has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Toronto’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 145 games (+18.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 99 games (+17.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  George Springer has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.70 Units / 33% ROI)