Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-110
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on September 15, 2024, both teams come off a recent clash where the Royals triumphed 5-1 over the Pirates. This matchup is crucial for the Pirates, who are currently 70-78 and struggling this season, while the Royals boast a solid 82-67 record, indicating a much stronger performance overall.
The Pirates will send Paul Skenes to the mound, who has been effective lately, highlighted by a strong outing on September 9 where he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters. In contrast, the Royals will counter with Brady Singer, who has had a decent season but has shown some inconsistency, with a 3.42 ERA and a concerning 4.48 xERA. This suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year and could face challenges against a Pirates lineup that, despite ranking 28th in offensive production, has shown glimpses of resilience.
Interestingly, the projections indicate that the Pirates have a slightly better chance to win this game than the odds suggest, with a projected score of 4.30 runs compared to the Royals’ 4.32 runs. This tight projection aligns with the fact that both teams are currently set at a -110 moneyline, suggesting a closely contested game.
The Pirates’ best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has had a solid season, but Jared Triolo has emerged as a key player recently, boasting a .467 batting average over the last week. If the Pirates can capitalize on Singer’s vulnerabilities, they might just pull off an upset in this critical series finale.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2384 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2275 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- As a team, Kansas City Royals hitters have struggled when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 4th-worst in MLB.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Jared Jones – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)Recording 17.1 outs per outing this year on average, Jared Jones places in the 76th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 95.4-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates hitters jointly grade out 10th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 8.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+185)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 117 games (+9.32 Units / 6% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-220)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.39 Units / 12% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)