Philadelphia Phillies
Kansas City Royals
(-120/+100)-140
On August 25, 2024, the Kansas City Royals host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal interleague matchup at Kauffman Stadium. The Phillies come into this game fresh off a commanding 11-2 victory over the Royals the previous day, showcasing their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Royals are looking to bounce back after that loss, as they currently hold a 72-57 record, while the Phillies boast a 75-54 record, making this a meeting of two competitive teams.
Seth Lugo is set to take the mound for the Royals. He has had a solid season with a 14-7 record and a commendable ERA of 3.02, positioning him as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, projections indicate he may be due for a regression, as his xFIP stands at 3.94, suggesting he might have benefitted from some favorable luck. Today’s matchup presents a unique challenge as Lugo faces a high-walk Phillies offense that ranks 4th in MLB, although his good control may mitigate that strength.
Kolby Allard, on the other hand, will start for Philadelphia. With a limited sample size of just 3 starts this season and an ERA of 3.46, Allard is perceived as one of the less effective pitchers in the league. His low strikeout rate will likely be a disadvantage against a Royals lineup that has excelled in making contact, ranking 2nd lowest in strikeouts. This could give Kansas City an edge.
The game total of 10.0 runs reflects high expectations for scoring, with the projections suggesting the Royals will score 6.06 runs and the Phillies 5.58 runs on average. With the Royals opening as betting favorites at -140, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest as both teams aim to assert their dominance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Kolby Allard – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kolby Allard in the 21st percentile among all starters in the league.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Brandon Marsh has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.8-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kolby Allard – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Garrett Stubbs (the Phillies’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.280) suggests that Freddy Fermin has had some very good luck this year with his .338 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Kansas City’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 72 of their last 124 games (+13.89 Units / 8% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)