New York Yankees
Seattle Mariners
(-120/+100)-125
As the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees prepare for the third game of their series on September 19, 2024, the stakes are high for the Mariners, who are still clinging to their playoff hopes. They come into the game with a 77-75 record, sitting in the middle of the pack in the American League. Meanwhile, the Yankees are enjoying a great season with an 89-63 record and seem well on their way to securing a playoff berth.
In yesterday’s matchup, the Yankees edged out the Mariners with a narrow 2-1 victory. The Mariners’ offense, ranked 22nd in MLB, struggled once again, managing just a single run. Their performance has been underwhelming, especially in team batting average, where they rank last. Conversely, the Yankees’ potent offense, ranked 3rd, continues to flex its muscle, leading MLB in home runs.
On the mound, the Mariners will rely on Logan Gilbert, who ranks 17th among MLB starting pitchers. Despite his 7-11 record, Gilbert boasts a solid 3.24 ERA and is projected to deliver a strong performance. His ability to limit walks could counteract the Yankees’ patience at the plate, as they lead MLB in drawing walks.
Clarke Schmidt will start for the Yankees. Although he has a sparkling 2.41 ERA, his peripheral stats suggest some regression might be on the horizon. Schmidt’s innings projection is below average, and he may face challenges against a Mariners lineup that, despite its struggles, ranks 9th in stolen bases.
The Mariners are given a slight edge by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which sees them with a 54% chance of victory. With both teams projected to score under four runs, this matchup is expected to be a low-scoring affair, making every at-bat crucial as the Mariners look to keep their postseason dreams alive.
New York Yankees Insights
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Clarke Schmidt’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2483 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2545 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+155)Recording 19.2 outs per start this year on average, Logan Gilbert ranks in the 100th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Julio Rodriguez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #4 team in baseball this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 100 games (+14.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+16.45 Units / 51% ROI)