Get Bets and Betting Tips for Twins vs Royals – 9/08/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League Central. The Royals hold a record of 78-65, while the Twins are slightly behind at 76-66. This matchup is crucial as both teams are having above-average seasons, making the stakes even higher.

In their last outing, the Royals played a competitive series against the Twins, which further adds to the intensity of this matchup. The Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richard, who has struggled with a 4.51 xFIP this season, suggesting he might be in for a tough outing. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha, the Royals’ starter, boasts a solid 3.50 ERA and is ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average. Wacha has been effective this year, with an 11-7 record and a projection of allowing 2.4 earned runs today, albeit with concerns about his tendency to give up hits and walks.

Offensively, the Royals rank 12th in MLB, with a particularly strong performance in stolen bases, ranking 8th. In contrast, the Twins have a slightly better overall ranking as the 9th best offense, but their 25th ranking in stolen bases reflects a lack of speed on the base paths. The Royals’ Tommy Pham has been heating up recently, leading the team with a .320 batting average and an .840 OPS over the last week.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Royals holding a moneyline of -120, the betting markets suggest a close contest. The projections favor the Royals, who have a high implied team total of 4.35 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Woods Richard’s struggles. As both teams vie for crucial wins, fans can expect an exciting matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Among all starters, Simeon Woods Richardson’s fastball spin rate of 2187 rpm grades out in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Miranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Miranda has been lucky this year, putting up a .344 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .038 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Michael Wacha has tallied 17.3 outs per start this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.9% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 68 games at home (+8.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 85 games (+6.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 29 games (+21.50 Units / 74% ROI)