Get Bets and Betting Tips for Reds vs Blue Jays – 8/21/2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to take on the Cincinnati Reds on August 21, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling to find consistent success this season. The Blue Jays hold a record of 59-67, while the Reds sit at 61-65, with both teams underperforming relative to expectations. After a resounding 10-3 victory against the Reds just yesterday, the Blue Jays will look to build momentum in their ongoing interleague series.

Projected starters for this matchup include the Blue Jays’ Yariel Rodriguez and the Reds’ Nick Martinez. Rodriguez, ranked 121st among MLB starting pitchers, is still seeking to turn around a tough season where he has posted a 1-5 record and an ERA of 3.86. Although his ERA appears decent, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate and may struggle. Meanwhile, Martinez, positioned 90th in Power Rankings, boasts a solid 3.25 ERA and a 6-6 record. Both pitchers are right-handed, but Rodriguez’s struggles, particularly with walks, could be a point of concern as he is projected to allow 1.8 walks and 4.0 hits in just 4.7 innings.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 15th in MLB, which is an average showing, while the Reds are slightly behind at 18th. The Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has emerged as a standout, showcasing an impressive .318 batting average and a .942 OPS this season. With the Blue Jays’ projected scoring of 4.38 runs, slightly higher than the Reds’ expected 4.28 runs, they may hold a slight edge going into this matchup.

Betting markets currently list the Blue Jays at -105 with a 49% implied win probability, but projections suggest a better chance of victory, opening the door for potential value on Toronto in this contest.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the worst out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+135/-180)
  Based on Statcast data, Will Benson is in the 1st percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .181.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170)
  Yariel Rodriguez has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Davis Schneider is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 49 games (+19.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+7.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.75 Units / 38% ROI)