Oakland Athletics
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-190
On August 15, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Oakland Athletics at Citi Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Mets are having an above-average season with a record of 62-58, while the Athletics are struggling at 51-70, marking a disappointing year. In their last matchup on August 14, the Mets dominated, winning 9-1, which adds to the Athletics’ woes as they look to bounce back.
Jose Quintana is projected to start for the Mets, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over 7 innings in his last start on August 9. Despite his 4.10 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate this season, as his xERA of 4.91 indicates potential for regression. However, he faces an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, which could play to his advantage as he is a low-strikeout pitcher.
Mitch Spence will take the mound for Oakland, sporting a 4.33 ERA. His recent performance was solid, allowing just 2 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start. While Spence has shown some promise, the Mets’ offense ranks 11th overall and boasts the 4th most home runs in MLB, indicating they can capitalize on his vulnerabilities. The projections favor the Mets, giving them an implied team total of 4.81 runs, suggesting that they are likely to score against a struggling Athletics pitching staff.
Overall, with the Mets showing offensive strength and Quintana’s potential to exploit the Athletics’ high strikeout rate, they appear well-positioned to continue their recent success in this matchup.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Mitch Spence’s 90.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.J. Bleday stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Daz Cameron – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Daz Cameron hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)Tallying 91.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Jose Quintana places in the 76th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive skill to be a .318, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .049 difference between that mark and his actual .367 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The New York Mets have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Torrens, Mark Vientos, J.D. Martinez).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+165)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 46 games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)