New York Mets
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+125
The Miami Marlins and New York Mets will face off again on July 22, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, marking the fourth game in their National League East series. The Marlins, currently struggling with a 35-64 record, managed to pull off an upset yesterday, defeating the Mets 4-2. Despite their impressive win, Miami remains far from playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Mets, who hold a 50-48 record, are having an average season and are still fighting to stay in the playoff race.
The Marlins will send Yonny Chirinos to the mound, who has had a rough season with an 0-1 record and a 5.76 ERA. His xFIP of 5.18 suggests he has been unlucky, but his high-flyball rate (41%) could be problematic against the Mets’ powerful lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB with 121 home runs. Chirinos was shelled in his last start on July 12, allowing seven earned runs over six innings, and he’ll need to bounce back to give Miami a chance.
David Peterson, who has been solid for the Mets with a 4-0 record and a 3.09 ERA, will counter for New York. However, his xFIP of 4.53 indicates he may have been fortunate so far. Peterson’s high-groundball rate (56%) might neutralize the Marlins’ weak power, as Miami ranks dead last in MLB with just 78 home runs. Peterson pitched a gem in his last outing on July 11, throwing six scoreless innings with five strikeouts.
Offensively, the Marlins have struggled, ranking 29th in MLB, while the Mets boast the 8th-best offense. Miami’s Jazz Chisholm has been their standout player with 13 home runs and 19 stolen bases. For the Mets, Francisco Lindor has been a key contributor, hitting 17 home runs and recording 52 RBIs.
The Marlins’ bullpen, ranked 10th, could be a bright spot, while the Mets’ bullpen sits at 20th, potentially giving Miami an edge in the later innings. Despite this, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mets a 58% chance to win, reinforcing their status as favorites in this matchup.
New York Mets Insights
- David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Considering that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball bats, David Peterson and his 49.8% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this outing matching up with 4 opposing FB bats.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Pete Alonso’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 80-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets batters jointly rank 4th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 9.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)Yonny Chirinos has been unlucky since the start of last season, posting a 5.48 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.03 — a 0.45 gap.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as David Peterson.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Emmanuel Rivera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)In today’s matchup, Emmanuel Rivera is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.3% rate (89th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 64% ROI)