Game Recap for Twins vs Rangers – Thursday, August 15th, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 15, 2024, the stakes are evident. The Rangers, sitting at 56-65, are in the midst of a disappointing season, while the Twins boast a solid 67-53 record. Both teams are looking to establish momentum as they kick off this important series, especially given the Twins’ recent 4-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Cody Bradford, who has been impressive with a 4-0 record and a solid 3.60 ERA this season. Bradford’s last outing was particularly strong, allowing just one earned run over five innings against the Boston Red Sox. However, despite his above-average ranking as the 79th best starting pitcher in MLB, he faces a tough challenge against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. Ober, ranked 30th, has been a standout with a 12-5 record and a 3.52 ERA, showcasing his ability to command the game.

Offensively, the trends are stark. The Rangers rank just 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Twins are 6th, reflecting a significant disparity in offensive production. The projections suggest that the Rangers will score around 3.96 runs, which is low, while the Twins are expected to tally about 3.69 runs. This indicates a potential for a low-scoring affair, as evidenced by the game total set at just 7.5 runs.

With the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 8th overall, they might rely on their relief options to hold down any late-game leads. Given that THE BAT X projects the Rangers to have a greater chance of winning than the betting market suggests, there could be value in backing the Rangers as they look to turn their season around against a strong Twins squad.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Max Kepler has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Cody Bradford will be in a good position squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Josh Jung’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 78.5-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games at home (+15.10 Units / 101% ROI)