Game Recap for Cardinals vs Giants – Saturday, September 28th, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals square off in the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves out of the playoff hunt, having experienced average seasons. The Cardinals took the first game of the series, beating the Giants 6-3, and will look to continue that momentum at Oracle Park.

The Giants, sitting at 79-81, will send Tristan Beck to the mound. Despite an impressive 1.50 ERA over six bullpen appearances, Beck’s transition to a starting role comes with caution, as his 4.48 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate thus far. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has a respectable 3.71 ERA and ranks as the 89th-best starting pitcher in MLB. Pallante’s consistency as a starter this season, with 19 starts under his belt, gives St. Louis a slight edge on the mound.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Giants rank 20th in overall offense and team batting average, while the Cardinals sit just two spots higher at 18th in overall offense. However, the Cardinals boast a better batting average, ranking 11th, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 1st in the Power Rankings, could prove to be a significant factor, especially if Beck struggles early. In contrast, the Cardinals’ bullpen is solid but only ranks 14th, which could leave them vulnerable in the later innings.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants have a 58% chance of winning, suggesting value for those looking to back San Francisco. While the betting markets see this as a close contest, the projections favor the Giants to bounce back and even the series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 outings, Andre Pallante has suffered a significant decline in his fastball velocity: from 93.9 mph over the entire season to 92.9 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Michael Siani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Sporting a .246 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Michael Siani is ranked in the 1st percentile for offensive skills.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters collectively rank 27th- in the game for power this year when using their 6.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Tristan Beck – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tristan Beck to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jerar Encarnacion – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jerar Encarnacion has a ton of pop (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (34.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante doesn’t generate many whiffs (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Encarnacion.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)