Game Recap for Cardinals vs Giants – Saturday, September 28th, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in a rather middling position this season. The Giants, who sit with a 79-81 record, will look to finish strong at Oracle Park. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, boasting an 82-78 mark, aim to solidify their slightly better standing. Yesterday, the Giants edged past the Cardinals in the series opener, adding a touch of momentum to their favor.

On the mound, San Francisco turns to Blake Snell, a left-handed pitcher who ranks 12th among approximately 350 MLB starters, marking him as an elite force. Snell’s season stats—5-3 record, a solid 3.12 ERA, and an impressive 2.42 FIP—suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, with indicators pointing towards potential improvement. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, foresees Snell delivering 5.5 innings, 7.5 strikeouts, and just 1.9 earned runs, despite a tendency to allow hits and walks.

The Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante, a right-hander ranked 89th among MLB starters, indicating above-average capabilities. Pallante has an 8-8 record with a 3.71 ERA this season. While his projections aren’t as favorable as Snell’s, he’s expected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs. His strikeout rate might be below average, but his ability to limit walks could play a crucial role.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Giants rank 20th in overall batting and 15th in home runs, reflecting an average power lineup. Conversely, the Cardinals sit 18th in batting average but lag at 22nd in home runs. However, Lars Nootbaar’s hot streak with a 1.613 OPS over the last week could be pivotal for St. Louis.

With the Giants holding a betting edge at -165, the projections align with San Francisco’s 62% win probability, suggesting they are slightly undervalued in this matchup. As both teams aim to end their seasons on a high note, this clash promises to be an intriguing contest of talent and strategy.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Over his last 3 outings, Andre Pallante has suffered a significant decline in his fastball velocity: from 93.9 mph over the entire season to 92.9 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (10.2) implies that Pedro Pages has had positive variance on his side this year with his 20.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters collectively rank 27th- in the game for power this year when using their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average pitcher, Blake Snell has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under Team Total
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)
  LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.80 Units / 96% ROI)