Game Recap for Brewers vs Twins – Saturday, July 20th, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive season. The Twins boast a 54-42 record, while the Brewers are slightly ahead at 55-42. This Interleague matchup at Target Field is poised to be a thrilling contest, especially with both teams having strong seasons.

The Twins will send right-hander Pablo Lopez to the mound. Lopez, despite his 8-7 record and a concerning 5.11 ERA, is considered the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 3.21 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Lopez projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.4 batters on average.

Opposing him will be Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Peralta, ranked 12th among starting pitchers, is having a solid season with a 6-5 record and a 4.11 ERA. His 3.47 xFIP also indicates some bad luck, and he is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters.

Offensively, the Twins rank as the 5th best in MLB, with a strong showing in team batting average (6th) and home runs (7th). However, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 25th. The Brewers, on the other hand, have the 8th best offense, excelling in batting average (4th) and stolen bases (2nd), though they are 21st in home runs.

The Twins hold a distinct advantage in the bullpen, ranked 2nd in MLB, while the Brewers’ bullpen is 22nd. This disparity could be crucial in a close game, especially given the low Game Total of 7.5 runs.

Betting markets suggest a tight contest, with the Twins’ moneyline at -120 (implied win probability of 52%) and the Brewers’ at +100 (implied win probability of 48%). Given the Twins’ robust bullpen and strong offense, they seem well-positioned to edge out the Brewers in this closely matched game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to average, Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 6.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Christian Yelich has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Pablo Lopez’s four-seamer utilization has increased by 5.2% from last year to this one (34.5% to 39.7%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Ryan Jeffers has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.7-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-15000)
  Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 away games (+19.00 Units / 136% ROI)