Game Location for Royals vs Nationals – 9/24/24

Kansas City Royals

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Washington Nationals

As the Kansas City Royals visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 24, 2024, both teams are in contrasting states this season. The Royals, with an 82-74 record, are having an above-average season, while the Nationals, at 69-87, are enduring a tough year. This interleague matchup features a notable pitching duel between Kansas City’s Cole Ragans and Washington’s Mitchell Parker.

Cole Ragans, ranked 14th among starting pitchers, has been a standout performer with an impressive 3.24 ERA. His high strikeout rate (29.4 K%) could be challenged by Washington’s offense, which ranks 5th in terms of least strikeouts. Despite this, Ragans is projected to allow only 1.9 earned runs over 5.9 innings, showcasing his elite form.

Mitchell Parker, on the other hand, is ranked 170th among starters, indicating a less favorable season. His 4.44 ERA and 3.90 FIP suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, but his projections for this game are concerning. He’s expected to allow 2.3 earned runs and 4.9 hits over 5 innings, which could spell trouble against a Royals offense ranked 14th overall.

Offensively, the Nationals have struggled, ranking 23rd overall, though they are 1st in stolen bases. Meanwhile, Kansas City boasts a solid 7th in batting average, presenting a balanced threat. The Royals’ bullpen, ranked 10th, offers a stark contrast to the Nationals’ 28th-ranked relief corps.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Royals a 61% win probability, reinforcing their status as favorites. While the Nationals’ implied win probability is only 39%, they will look to exploit any weaknesses in Ragans’ game to pull off an upset. With the Nationals’ playoff hopes dashed, they aim to play spoiler against a Royals team still vying for postseason positioning.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Cole Ragans’s 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph decrease from last year’s 96-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Collectively, Kansas City Royals hitters have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-worst in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitchell Parker to throw 82 pitches in today’s game (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.9-mph EV last season has decreased to 87.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 150 games (+6.25 Units / 3% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-105/-125)
  Cole Ragans has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)