Game Location for Royals vs Nationals – 9/24/24

Kansas City Royals

@

Washington Nationals

As we look forward to the September 24, 2024, matchup between the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals, it’s clear that the Nationals’ challenging season continues as they face a Royals team that’s performing above average. Kansas City enters Nationals Park with an 82-74 record, contrasting sharply with Washington’s 69-87 mark. In this interleague clash, both teams are starting left-handed pitchers, with the Nationals sending Mitchell Parker to the mound against the Royals’ Cole Ragans.

Mitchell Parker’s performance this season has been underwhelming, boasting a 7-10 record and a 4.44 ERA, ranking him 168th among starting pitchers. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, but with projections anticipating him allowing 2.3 earned runs over 4.9 innings, the Nationals face an uphill battle. Meanwhile, Cole Ragans is having an impressive season with a 3.24 ERA, placing him among the top 14 pitchers. The Royals’ bullpen is also a strength, ranking 9th, compared to the Nationals’ 28th-placed pen, which could be pivotal in a close game.

Both offenses show contrasting strengths. Washington ranks 23rd overall but leads the league in stolen bases. Their power issues are evident, ranking 29th in home runs. Kansas City, with the 14th-best offense, combines an above-average batting average with decent speed on the basepaths, ranking 10th in stolen bases, but they struggle with power, sitting at 20th in homers.

THE BAT X, the leading projection system, views the Royals as slight favorites with a 59% chance to win, slightly above their 60% implied odds. Despite Washington’s struggles, their ability to minimize strikeouts could counter Ragans’ high strikeout rate, adding an intriguing wrinkle to this matchup. All indicators suggest that Kansas City holds the edge, but baseball’s unpredictable nature means anything is possible.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Cole Ragans’s 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph decrease from last year’s 96-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Collectively, Kansas City Royals hitters have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 2nd-worst in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mitchell Parker to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.9-mph EV last season has decreased to 87.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 150 games (+6.25 Units / 3% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+135/-175)
  Jose Tena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)