Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-115/-105)-205
The Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field on August 14, 2024, in a crucial National League West matchup. With a strong season standing at 68-53, the Diamondbacks are solid contenders to make a playoff push, while the Rockies languish in the basement with a dismal 44-77 record. These two teams met yesterday, with the Diamondbacks narrowly edging out the Rockies 4-3 in a tightly contested game.
In today’s game, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Jordan Montgomery, who has struggled this season with a 7-6 record and a troubling ERA of 6.37. However, his expected metrics suggest he may be due for better luck moving forward, as his xFIP stands at a more favorable 4.86. Montgomery will be looking to improve after a lackluster outing in his last start, where he allowed four earned runs over six innings.
On the other side, the Rockies will counter with Tanner Gordon, who has yet to find success, sporting an 0-3 record and an ERA of 6.15. Gordon pitched decently in his last outing, going five innings with just two earned runs, but he remains a high-risk option against a strong Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in the majors.
The projections favor the Diamondbacks, who are expected to score around 5.17 runs today, compared to the Rockies’ 4.18. With their potent lineup and a top-ranked bullpen (2nd best in MLB), the Diamondbacks should be well-positioned to seize another victory against their struggling rivals. As they continue to solidify their position in the playoff race, every win counts, making this matchup all the more significant.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)Tanner Gordon has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Jacob Stallings is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)In today’s matchup, Sam Hilliard is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (93rd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jordan Montgomery has utilized his secondary pitches 5.2% more often this season (52%) than he did last year (46.8%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Joc Pederson is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game since none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .330 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-205)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 62 games (+19.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+15.25 Units / 26% ROI)