Game Highlights for Rays vs Tigers – September 25, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 25, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions this season. The Tigers are enjoying an above-average season with an 83-74 record, while the Rays are hovering around .500 at 78-79. Detroit currently holds a slight edge in the standings, and this matchup could impact their playoff aspirations as the season winds down.

The Tigers took the first game in the series, setting a positive tone for this second matchup at Comerica Park. This American League clash features two right-handed pitchers, Keider Montero for the Tigers and Zack Littell for the Rays. Montero, ranked as the #295 starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled this season with a 4.86 ERA. However, his 4.23 xFIP indicates some potential for improvement. Littell, on the other hand, has been more consistent, posting a 3.56 ERA, though his xFIP of 4.08 suggests he might have been a bit fortunate.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly impressive. The Tigers’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, while the Rays sit at 27th. Despite these low rankings, the Tigers’ bullpen is a bright spot, ranking 9th, while the Rays boast the 2nd-best bullpen, which could play a decisive role in a close game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a slight edge with a 51% win probability compared to the Rays’ 49%. Detroit’s implied win probability is 54%, suggesting a close contest. The projections also anticipate the Rays to score slightly more runs, with an average of 4.51 compared to the Tigers’ 4.31. This game could hinge on bullpen performance, giving the Rays a potential advantage in the later innings.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Zack Littell’s four-seam fastball utilization has dropped by 5.7% from last year to this one (27.9% to 22.2%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christopher Morel has been unlucky given the .036 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brandon Lowe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  In his previous game started, Keider Montero was firing on all cylinders and posted 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games (+21.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 90 of their last 150 games (+25.11 Units / 14% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+6.95 Units / 14% ROI)