Seattle Mariners
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-115/-105)-120
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 16, 2024, this Interleague matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Pirates sit at 56-64, undergoing a disappointing season, while the Mariners, with a record of 63-59, have performed above average. Both teams are coming off losses, with the Pirates falling 8-2 to the San Diego Padres, while the Mariners lost narrowly 2-1 to the Detroit Tigers.
Pirates’ ace Paul Skenes, the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, takes the mound. Despite facing a tough Mariners lineup, Skenes’ high strikeout percentage of 32.3% could prove advantageous against a Seattle team that leads the league in strikeouts. However, Skenes has shown some vulnerabilities, allowing 4.4 hits and 1.6 walks on average, indicating that while he can dominate, he might be susceptible to damage if runners reach base.
On the other side, Logan Gilbert, ranked 26th among starting pitchers, has had a solid season, albeit with a less impressive win-loss record of 7-8. Gilbert’s last outing was strong, pitching 7 innings with no earned runs. Yet, his projections show he could allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.3 hits, which could be problematic against a Pirates offense that has struggled, ranking 27th overall.
The projections lean towards the Pirates as slight favorites, suggesting they might score an average of 4.10 runs, while the Mariners are projected for just 3.91 runs. This indicates that while both offenses have underperformed this season, the Pirates could capitalize on their home-field advantage and Skenes’ elite potential to turn the tide in their favor.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Over his previous 3 outings, Logan Gilbert has seen a significant spike in his fastball spin rate: from 1984 rpm over the entire season to 2094 rpm recently.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, compiling a .301 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .358 — a .057 gap.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- The 9.4% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners grades them out as the #4 group of hitters in the majors this year by this standard.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-230/+175)Compared to the average pitcher, Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.4 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Bryan De La Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+180)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)