Game Highlights for Cardinals vs Pirates – July 24, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 24, 2024, at PNC Park in the third game of their series. Both teams come into this National League Central matchup with something to prove. The Pirates are hovering around .500 with a 51-50 record, and the Cardinals have a slightly better 53-48 record.

In their last encounter on July 23, the Cardinals edged out the Pirates 2-1, despite being significant underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +155. The Pirates, who were favored at -170, will be looking to bounce back and even the series.

On the mound, the Pirates are set to start Martin Perez, while the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore. Both pitchers have struggled this season, with Perez’s ERA sitting at a dreadful 5.61 and Liberatore’s at a slightly better but still concerning 4.15###102. Perez has been particularly unlucky, as his 4.49 xFIP suggests he might perform better moving forward.

Offensively, the Pirates have been underwhelming, ranking 27th in MLB in overall talent. Their team batting average is 25th, and they sit 23rd in home runs. Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot, boasting a .288 batting average and 18 home runs. Over the last week, Oneil Cruz has been on fire with a .368 batting average and a 1.165 OPS.

The Cardinals’ offense is average, ranking 18th in overall talent. Alec Burleson has been their standout performer with a .293 batting average and 18 home runs. Nolan Gorman has been their best hitter over the last week, posting a .910 OPS and hitting two home runs.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Pirates ranked 8th and the Cardinals ranked 4th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given the pitching struggles of both starters, the bullpens might play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50% and identical Moneyline odds of -110. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates have a slight edge with a 51% win probability. With high projected runs for both teams, expect an exciting and closely contested game at PNC Park.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Matthew Liberatore’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (50.5% compared to 43.6% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 89.7-mph average last year has lowered to 86.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Martin Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2030.3 rpm is in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Against the weak defense of St. Louis’s 3rd-worst infield on the slate), Josh Palacios has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-220)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)