Game Highlights for Athletics vs Mariners – September 29, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are set for an American League West showdown on September 29, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners are having an above-average season with an 84-77 record, while the Athletics are struggling at 69-92. Despite Oakland’s challenges, they boast the 10th-best bullpen in MLB, a stark contrast to the Mariners’ 21st-ranked bullpen.

Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, the 15th-ranked pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, will take the mound. Gilbert’s impressive 3.33 ERA and high strikeout rate (27.1 K%) give Seattle an edge, particularly against an Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. Meanwhile, Mitch Spence will start for Oakland. Although Spence’s ERA of 4.35 is average, he’ll face a Mariners offense that struggles with strikeouts, ranking 1st in the league.

Offensively, both teams have had their share of ups and downs. The Athletics rank 21st overall but have shown power, ranking 8th in home runs. On the flip side, the Mariners rank 22nd overall, but their home run capability is decent, sitting at 13th. Notably, Luke Raley has been hot for Seattle over the last week, batting .300 with a 1.117 OPS.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are favored with a 66% win probability, outperforming the betting market’s implied probability. With the Mariners’ stronger pitching matchup and home-field advantage, they seem to hold the upper hand, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking for value.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitch Spence must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 84.8% of the time, placing in the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.9 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daz Cameron, Kyle McCann, Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2214 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2031 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Oakland’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games at home (+11.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Seth Brown has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)