Game Forecast: Tigers vs Royals Head-to-Head Analysis Wednesday September 18th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

@

Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers square off in the final game of their series on September 18, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Royals holding an 82-70 record and the Tigers close on their heels at 79-73. This American League Central matchup continues to have playoff implications, with both teams likely vying for a Wild Card spot.

Coming off a narrow 3-1 win, the Tigers aim to clinch another victory as they send Tarik Skubal to the mound. Skubal, boasting a 16-4 record and a stellar 2.50 ERA, ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher. He’s been particularly effective at limiting runs and recording strikeouts, projecting 6.5 strikeouts tonight. However, the Royals’ lineup could pose a challenge with their low strikeout and walk rates, potentially offsetting Skubal’s usual dominance.

The Royals will counter with Alec Marsh, who sports an 8-8 record and a 4.52 ERA. Despite a shaky overall ranking (210th among starting pitchers), Marsh showed promise in his last outing, recording 11 strikeouts over five solid innings. Kansas City’s offense, ranked 13th in MLB, has consistently been more productive than Detroit’s, especially in terms of batting average and stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a 60% chance of victory, a slight edge over the market’s implied probability. Despite Kansas City’s lower projected win probability, their offensive capability and recent sparks from players like Kyle Isbel could make this game closer than it appears on paper. With both teams eyeing the playoffs, expect an intense battle on the field.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Tarik Skubal’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (53.7 vs. 48.1% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Parker Meadows is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Detroit Tigers hitters as a group rank near the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 10th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Alec Marsh – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Among all starters, Alec Marsh’s fastball spin rate of 2500 rpm is in the 92nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year’s 90.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games at home (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 29 away games (+16.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Colt Keith has hit the Hits Over in his last 16 away games (+17.85 Units / 57% ROI)