Game Forecast: Rays vs Orioles Head-to-Head Analysis Saturday September 7th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 7, 2024, in a crucial matchup for the American League East. The Orioles are in solid contention for the postseason with an impressive 82-60 record, while the Rays sit at 69-72, having an average season. This game holds significance as the Orioles aim to maintain their momentum after a 2-0 victory over the Rays yesterday, where they showcased their strong pitching and powerful lineup.

Starting for the Orioles is Zach Eflin, who is projected as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a solid 3.60 ERA. Eflin comes off a strong outing where he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, which highlights his current form. Contrastingly, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, ranked 54th among starters, who has struggled lately, having given up 3 earned runs in only 3 innings in his last start. This mismatch could heavily favor the Orioles, especially considering Pepiot’s high flyball rate against a lineup that leads MLB with 157 home runs.

The Orioles’ offense is performing at an elite level, ranking 1st in MLB for home runs and 5th in overall offensive efficiency. Their best hitter, Gunnar Henderson, has been on fire, hitting .435 with a 1.387 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Rays’ offense ranks 27th in MLB, failing to produce significant power or consistent batting average.

The projections indicate a favorable outcome for the Orioles, with an average team total of 4.40 runs, compared to the Rays’ low projection of 3.64 runs. With Eflin on the mound and the Orioles riding high after their recent victory, they appear poised to secure another win in this series.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Ryan Pepiot faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.6 mph compared to last year’s 94 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Shenton, Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe, Jose Siri).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Zach Eflin’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 72 of their last 131 games (+19.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 134 games (+21.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Jonny Deluca has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 85% ROI)