Game Forecast: Phillies vs Marlins Match Preview – 6/17/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on June 17, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, they find themselves in a tough spot. After losing 5-2 to the Phillies just a day prior, the Marlins have struggled significantly this season, currently sitting at 28-42. In stark contrast, the Phillies boast a strong 43-29 record and have been performing impressively, making them heavy favorites in this matchup.

Miami will send Cal Quantrill to the mound, who has had a difficult year, posting a 3-7 record with a troubling 5.61 ERA. His last outing on June 11 saw him allow three earned runs over five innings, striking out six batters, but his overall projections indicate he is likely to pitch only 4.9 innings today while allowing 2.8 earned runs. This aligns with his ranking as the 308th best starting pitcher in MLB, a clear indicator of his struggles.

On the other hand, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has been a bright spot for Philadelphia. With a solid 6-2 record and a 4.23 ERA, Luzardo’s recent performance has been stellar, as he pitched well in his last start on June 11, allowing just one earned run over six innings with a striking 10 strikeouts. His projections suggest he will log six innings while giving up only 2.6 earned runs, solidifying his place among the top 40 pitchers in the league.

Offensively, the Phillies rank as the 7th best team in MLB, while the Marlins sit at 19th. With the projections indicating a high implied team total of 4.77 runs for the Phillies versus a low 3.73 for the Marlins, this game shapes up to favor Philadelphia heavily. Given the disparity in team performance and starting pitching, expect the Phillies to continue their winning ways against a struggling Marlins squad.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Out of all starters, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 95.8 mph ranks in the 88th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball bats like Johan Rojas generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies batters jointly rank among the best in the majors this year (9th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #25 HR venue among all major league parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Eric Wagaman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-195/+150)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+7.55 Units / 20% ROI)