Game Forecast: Padres vs D-Backs Match Preview – 9/28/24

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 28, 2024, fans can look forward to a compelling National League West matchup at Chase Field. While the Padres have already secured a strong 92-68 record this season, putting them in a favorable position for playoff contention, the Diamondbacks’ respectable 88-72 record suggests that they are still fighting for a possible Wild Card spot. In yesterday’s game, the Padres edged out the Diamondbacks with a 5-3 victory, marking the first game of this series with a key win.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks will rely on Eduardo Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher ranked 67th among approximately 350 starters, indicating a slightly above-average performance. While his 5.56 ERA is concerning, his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could see improved results. His counterpart, Randy Vasquez of the Padres, brings a 5.18 ERA to the game, with projections indicating that he has been fortunate to maintain even that mark. The Padres might need all the run support they can get today, given Vasquez’s shaky past performances.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the league’s 1st-ranked offense, with impressive team batting average and home run stats. Their lineup is brimming with potential to exploit Vasquez’s vulnerabilities, particularly as the Padres’ offense, though 5th-best, could struggle against Arizona’s 4th-ranked bullpen. Notably, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 55% win probability, emphasizing this match as a strong opportunity for them to even the series against their division rivals. With the Padres taking the first game, the Diamondbacks are keen to capitalize on their home-field advantage and test Vasquez’s mettle on the mound.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Vasquez to throw 77 pitches in today’s game (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In today’s matchup, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.4% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez figures to be at an advantage facing 6 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jake McCarthy has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 79.4-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-185)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup grades out as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 118 games (+27.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+160)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games (+15.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)