Game Forecast: Padres vs D-Backs Match Preview – 9/28/24

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the National League West matchup continues at Chase Field, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres are set to face off in the second game of their series. With the Diamondbacks sporting an 88-72 record, they are having a good season but trail the Padres, who are at 92-68 and enjoying a great season. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, adding an extra layer of intensity to this encounter. In their previous meeting on September 27, the Padres secured a victory with a 5-3 win over the D-Backs.

Arizona is projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher ranked as the 67th best starting pitcher, suggesting he is above average despite his 5.56 ERA. His 4.19 xFIP indicates some bad luck this season, hinting at potential improvement. Rodriguez’s recent performance was rocky, allowing five earned runs in his last start, but he remains a key player for the D-Backs.

On the mound for the Padres is Randy Vasquez, a right-hander with a troubling 5.18 ERA. Despite his struggles, the Padres’ offense, ranked 5th best overall and 1st in batting average, provides ample support. Vasquez’s xERA of 6.16 highlights some fortunate outcomes this season, suggesting regression may be on the horizon.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the top-ranked lineup in MLB, with standout performances in both batting average and home runs. Corbin Carroll has been their most consistent hitter throughout the season, while Randal Grichuk has been on fire recently, batting .500 over the last week.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Diamondbacks as the favorites, giving them a 63% chance to win, with an expected high run output of 5.30. Meanwhile, the Padres, despite being underdogs with a 37% chance, are projected to score a respectable 4.20 runs. With both teams vying for playoff positioning, this game promises to be a thrilling contest with significant postseason implications.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 14.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Randy Vasquez falls in the 16th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nick Ahmed – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Nick Ahmed has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez figures to be at an advantage facing 7 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jake McCarthy has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-220)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup grades out as the 4th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 118 games (+27.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+185)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games (+15.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Joc Pederson has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)