Game Forecast: Padres vs D-Backs Match Preview – 9/28/24

San Diego Padres

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the National League West race heats up, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on September 28, 2024, at Chase Field. The Padres have a slight edge in the standings, boasting a 92-68 record compared to the Diamondbacks’ 88-72. Both teams are eyeing postseason berths, making this matchup crucial. In the series opener, the Padres claimed a 5-3 victory, highlighting their robust lineup.

Arizona will rely on left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, despite his subpar 5.56 ERA this season. Rodriguez’s peripheral stats, such as a 4.19 xFIP, suggest he’s been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. Meanwhile, San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, whose 5.18 ERA indicates struggles, compounded by his 6.16 xERA suggesting his performance might regress further.

The Diamondbacks’ offense, ranked 1st in MLB overall, is led by standout Corbin Carroll. Arizona has excelled in team batting average, ranking 2nd, and is 5th in home runs. Conversely, the Padres bring the 5th best offense, with a league-leading batting average. Jurickson Profar spearheads San Diego’s attack, with noteworthy power and contact numbers.

Both bullpens rank among the league’s elite, with Arizona holding the 4th and San Diego the 5th spot. The projections from the leading MLB system, THE BAT X, favor the Diamondbacks, assigning them a 55% win probability and projecting them to score 5.46 runs. This contrasts with their implied win probability of 59%, suggesting some value on the Padres.

With the Diamondbacks favored at -155 and the Padres as +135 underdogs, this game promises offensive fireworks, given the high game total of 9.0 runs. Expect an intense battle as both teams vie for crucial wins in the playoff hunt.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Vasquez to throw 77 pitches in today’s game (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under Hits
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s matchup, Jackson Merrill is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.4% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez figures to be at an advantage facing 6 batters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jake McCarthy has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 79.4-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-155)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup grades out as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 118 games (+27.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games (+15.90 Units / 13% ROI)