Game Forecast: Nationals vs Cubs Match Preview – 9/22/24

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs gear up to host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2024, the stakes are high for the Cubs. Sitting at 79-76, they are still within reach of a Wild Card spot in the National League, while the Nationals at 69-86 are out of playoff contention. The Cubs, who are coming off a 5-1 loss to these same Nationals on September 21, will look to bounce back in this fourth game of the series.

Shota Imanaga, the Cubs’ left-handed starter, will take the mound against Washington’s Jake Irvin. Imanaga has been one of the bright spots for Chicago, boasting a 14-3 win-loss record and a stellar 3.03 ERA this season. Despite these impressive numbers, his 3.65 xFIP suggests that luck has played a role in his success. Meanwhile, Irvin enters with a 10-12 record and a 4.07 ERA, making him a below-average option in the Nationals’ rotation.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 13th in MLB, making them an average unit, but their ability to draw walks could be neutralized by Irvin’s solid control. Conversely, the Nationals’ lineup, which ranks 23rd overall and struggles with power, could find it challenging to capitalize on Imanaga’s flyball tendencies.

In last night’s game, the Nationals’ offense capitalized on opportunities, while the Cubs’ lineup faltered. However, projections favor the Cubs, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 67% chance of victory today. The Cubs are listed as a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -205, translating to an implied win probability of 65%. With an average run projection of 5.30, the Cubs are expected to rebound, while the Nationals are projected to score 3.86 runs, highlighting the uphill battle they face.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has relied on his non-fastballs 6.8% more often this season (42.2%) than he did last year (35.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Tena tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Shota Imanaga’s 2443-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 88th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago has been the #2 offense in the game when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (16.7% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)