Game Forecast: Nationals vs Cubs Match Preview – 9/22/24

Washington Nationals

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals prepare to face off at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2024, the stakes are notably different for each team. The Cubs, sitting at 79-76, are having an average season and will look to improve their standing in the National League. Meanwhile, the Nationals, with a record of 69-86, are struggling and have been eliminated from division contention.

In their last matchup on September 21, the Nationals outperformed the Cubs, securing a 5-1 victory. The Cubs will be eager to bounce back, especially with Shota Imanaga on the mound. Imanaga, ranked as the 71st best starting pitcher, boasts an impressive 14-3 record and a stellar 3.03 ERA. However, his 3.65 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky this season.

The Nationals will counter with Jake Irvin, who, despite a respectable ERA of 4.07, has a less favorable win-loss record of 10-12. His projections for this game are not promising, with an anticipated 3.0 earned runs allowed over just 4.9 innings.

Offensively, the Cubs have the edge, ranking 13th in overall offense compared to the Nationals’ 23rd. Chicago’s lineup, led by Ian Happ, has shown strength in drawing walks, a potential advantage against Irvin’s low walk rate. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense, despite ranking 1st in stolen bases, struggles with power, sitting 29th in home runs. This could play into Imanaga’s hands, given his high-flyball tendencies.

The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -195, reflecting an implied win probability of 64%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them an even higher 68% chance of victory, suggesting value in siding with the Cubs in this matchup. The game total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, with the Cubs projected to score a robust 5.36 runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has relied on his non-fastballs 6.8% more often this season (42.2%) than he did last year (35.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Tena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Tena tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-195)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Patrick Wisdom is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)