Game Forecast: Nationals vs Cubs Match Preview – 9/22/24

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

In an intriguing National League matchup, the Chicago Cubs host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on September 22, 2024. The Cubs are aiming to solidify their standing as they navigate a season that’s seen them teetering at a 79-76 record. While their playoff hopes might be hanging in the balance, their average performance this season offers potential to edge out the Nationals, who are enduring a challenging campaign with a 69-86 record.

Taking the mound for the Cubs is Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher noted for his stellar 14-3 Win/Loss record and impressive 3.03 ERA. Despite a 3.65 xFIP indicating that he might have benefited from some luck, Imanaga’s advanced stats position him as the 71st best starter in MLB. The Cubs are hoping he replicates the success he’s had in his 28 starts this year, as they try to capitalize on a Washington offense ranked 23rd in overall performance.

On the flip side, Jake Irvin will start for the Nationals. While Irvin’s 4.07 ERA is above average, the advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest inconsistency, labeling him as below average. With the Cubs’ offense ranked 13th overall and proficient at drawing walks, Irvin will face a tough task despite his commendable control.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a solid edge with a 66% win probability, underscoring their status as favorites in this matchup. The projection of 4.49 runs for the Cubs contrasts sharply with 3.39 for the Nationals, highlighting the anticipated edge Chicago holds in this contest. As both teams vie for victory, the Cubs’ combination of above-average pitching and reliable offense could be the key to triumphing over the Nationals at home.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has relied on his non-fastballs 6.8% more often this season (42.2%) than he did last year (35.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-195)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Patrick Wisdom is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-190/+145)
  Jake Irvin has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 20 of his last 31 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)