Game Forecast: Mets vs Giants Match Preview – 7/26/25

New York Mets

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants face off against the New York Mets on July 26, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup at Oracle Park. The Giants, sitting at 54-50, are having an above-average season, while the Mets, boasting a strong 60-44 record, are in the midst of a great campaign. The previous game in this series saw the Mets come out on top, continuing their momentum.

Robbie Ray is projected to take the mound for San Francisco, and he brings a solid 9-4 record and an excellent ERA of 2.92 this season. However, his 3.93 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit lucky, and with a high walk rate of 9.8%, he may be vulnerable against a patient Mets offense that ranks 4th in the league for drawing walks. Ray projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is above average, and his tendency to issue walks could provide New York with scoring opportunities.

On the other side, David Peterson will start for the Mets. Peterson has a respectable 6-4 record and an ERA of 2.90, but he is considered an average pitcher according to the projections. He may struggle against the Giants’ lineup, which, while ranked 24th in the league offensively, features a best hitter who has been particularly hot recently.

Despite the Giants’ lower ranking in offensive performance, their bullpen is rated 9th in the league, which could be a crucial factor in a tight game. Betting markets currently favor the Giants with a moneyline of -115, indicating confidence in their ability to secure a win in this close matchup. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on their opportunities to come out ahead.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Because groundball batters hold a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, David Peterson and his 51.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot today going up against 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robbie Ray faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+9.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+230/-315)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+9.15 Units / 183% ROI)