Game Forecast: Mets vs Brewers Head-to-Head Analysis Saturday September 28th, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets gear up for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams are in the thick of the playoff race. The Brewers, boasting a solid 92-68 record, are having a standout season and are keen to secure their postseason aspirations. Meanwhile, the Mets, at 87-71, are also in strong contention, adding an extra layer of intensity to this National League showdown.

The Brewers took the opener, defeating the Mets 8-4, a game that underscored their offensive capabilities. With Milwaukee’s offense ranking 10th overall and 7th in batting average this season, they have the firepower to challenge any pitching staff. Their proficiency in stealing bases, ranked 2nd in MLB, further complicates matters for opposing pitchers.

On the mound, Milwaukee will start Jared Koenig, who has been primarily used out of the bullpen this year. Despite his limited starting experience, his 2.51 ERA is impressive, although his 4.03 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. His high groundball rate could prove advantageous against the Mets’ potent lineup, which ranks 6th in home runs.

The Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, whose 3.74 ERA is solid, but his 4.54 xFIP hints at potential vulnerability. The projections have him going 4.9 innings and allowing 2.7 earned runs, which could open the door for Milwaukee’s offense to capitalize.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Brewers are favored with a 56% win probability, suggesting value in siding with Milwaukee. With both teams evenly matched on the moneyline, the Brewers’ slight edge could be pivotal as they aim to clinch another victory in this crucial series.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jose Quintana’s 90.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 6th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Jose Iglesias has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 76.6-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Jared Koenig may not go more than a couple frames considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  With a .194 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Rhys Hoskins grades out in the 2nd percentile.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-160)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 159 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+18.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-185)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 42% ROI)