Game Forecast: Guardians vs Twins Match Preview – 8/10/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Minnesota Twins

On August 10, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will host the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field in a pivotal American League Central matchup. Currently, the Twins hold a record of 65-50, while the Guardians are slightly ahead at 67-49. Both teams are in solid positions, with the Guardians enjoying a strong season and the Twins looking to maintain momentum after their last game, where they faced a tough loss.

Simeon Woods Richardson is projected to take the mound for Minnesota, showcasing a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and a decent ERA of 3.87 this year. However, he ranks as the 136th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating room for improvement. Woods Richardson is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.4 batters, which suggests he may face challenges against a competitive Guardians lineup.

On the other side, Gavin Williams will start for Cleveland. With a 1-4 record and an ERA of 4.91, Williams ranks 60th among MLB starters. His projections indicate he might last around 4.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters. Both pitchers are struggling to find their groove, but Williams has a lower xFIP of 3.77, suggesting he might be due for better luck in the future.

Offensively, the Twins rank 7th in team batting average and 8th in home runs, which bodes well for their chances against a Cleveland pitching staff that has faced some inconsistency. Matt Wallner has been the Twins’ standout hitter recently, boasting a .417 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez has led the Guardians’ charge, contributing to their average 15th rank in batting average.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and Minnesota’s moneyline at -120, betting markets anticipate a closely contested game. The Twins’ strong lineup and home advantage present a compelling case for them to pull off a win against the Guardians, who are not without their own struggles on the mound.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Williams is projected to throw 82 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Simeon Woods Richardson will be at an advantage squaring off against 6 batters in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Miranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jose Miranda has had positive variance on his side given the .056 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 away games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)