Game Forecast: Giants vs Mets Head-to-Head Analysis Saturday August 2nd, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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New York Mets

On August 2, 2025, the New York Mets will host the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets currently sit at 62-48, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants are hovering at .500 with a record of 55-55. Last night, the Mets emerged victorious in the first game of the series, with their standout pitcher Kodai Senga delivering a gem, further solidifying their strong position in the postseason race.

Kodai Senga is projected to take the mound for the Mets, boasting a 7-3 record and a remarkable 2.00 ERA this year. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, yet he remains one of the more effective pitchers in MLB, ranked 64th in the Power Rankings. Senga’s ability to generate ground balls (48% GB rate) will be crucial against a Giants offense that struggles with power, ranking 24th overall with just 101 home runs this season.

On the other hand, the Giants will counter with Kai-Wei Teng, who has had a challenging season and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB according to the projections. Teng’s 4.2 innings pitched projection does not inspire confidence, and he is expected to allow 2.4 earned runs on average, which could be problematic against a Mets offense that, while ranked 12th, does have potential to capitalize on his struggles.

With the Mets holding an implied team total of 4.96 runs compared to the Giants’ 3.54, the advanced stats favor the Mets significantly. As they look to maintain their momentum from last night’s win, the Mets have the upper hand in this matchup and will aim to build on their strong season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kai-Wei Teng – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kai-Wei Teng to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  In terms of his home runs, Dominic Smith has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 11.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The San Francisco Giants have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Kodai Senga’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.8% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Pete Alonso has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last year to 19.4% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-185)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 54 games at home (+11.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+11.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Brett Baty has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+18.60 Units / 310% ROI)