Game Breakdown: Rockies vs Padres Team Stats and Insights – April 13, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

San Diego Padres

On April 13, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres are off to a stellar start this season with a 12-3 record, while the Rockies are struggling at 3-11. In their last matchup, the Padres shut out the Rockies 2-0, showcasing their strong pitching and offensive prowess.

San Diego’s Michael King is projected to take the mound, bringing with him a 2-0 record and a ranking as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. King has been effective this season, with an average projection of allowing just 1.8 earned runs per game, although he does have a tendency to walk batters, which could be mitigated against a Rockies lineup that ranks among the lowest in walks drawn.

On the other side, Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, who has yet to secure a win this season with a 0-2 record, faces a daunting challenge. His recent struggles include a rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings. Despite a decent ERA of 3.79, his low strikeout rate and high hit projection could spell trouble against a Padres offense that ranks 1st in batting average and 5th overall in MLB.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, the Padres are significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -235, suggesting they are expected to maintain their strong performance against a Rockies team that has struggled to find their footing this season. The projections indicate that San Diego’s lineup, bolstered by their best hitter’s impressive .365 batting average, could continue to capitalize on Freeland’s weaknesses, making this matchup one to watch.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland will “start” for Colorado Rockies in today’s matchup but will be treated as more of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  San Diego’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mickey Moniak, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Hunter Goodman, the Rockies’s expected catcher today, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have 6 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael King in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Over the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 20.8% up to 31.3%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Michael King – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+110/-140)
  Michael King has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)