Game Breakdown: Rockies vs D-Backs Team Stats and Insights – August 13, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on August 13, 2024, they enter the matchup with a solid 67-53 record, significantly outperforming the Rockies, who sit at 44-76. The Diamondbacks have been enjoying a strong season, bolstered by their impressive offense, which ranks 2nd overall in MLB. In contrast, the Rockies have struggled, particularly in their last game where they fell to the Diamondbacks by a close score of 5-4.

Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has shown potential this season with a 1-0 record, although his 4.76 ERA suggests he has been somewhat lucky. His projected performance today indicates he may pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing approximately 2.1 earned runs. Rodriguez’s low strikeout rate could be an advantage against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for strikeouts.

Austin Gomber, starting for the Rockies, has had a rough season with a 3-8 record and a 4.92 ERA. His last outing was particularly troubling, where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. Gomber’s projections indicate he may pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, but he has struggled with walks and hits, which could spell trouble against the Diamondbacks’ potent lineup.

The Diamondbacks are currently favored with a moneyline of -205 and an implied team total of 4.96 runs, according to the leading MLB projection system. The projections suggest the Diamondbacks will score around 4.71 runs, while the Rockies are expected to manage only 3.83 runs. With the Diamondbacks’ elite bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB and the Rockies’ bullpen sitting at 25th, Arizona appears well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Austin Gomber has utilized his curveball 5.1% more often this year (21.9%) than he did last season (16.8%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.4-mph average last season has fallen off to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate of 2166.1 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jake McCarthy has been lucky this year, putting up a .358 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .306 — a .052 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 81 games (+17.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Brendan Rodgers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)