Game Breakdown: Padres vs Rays Head-to-Head Insights 8/31/2024

San Diego Padres

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the San Diego Padres on August 31, 2024, each team has its own narrative shaping the matchup. The Rays, currently sitting at 66-68, are having an average season and are not in contention for their division. Conversely, the Padres boast a solid 77-60 record, reflecting their successful campaign thus far.

In their previous encounter, the Padres emerged victorious, further solidifying their position in the playoff race. Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz, projected to start, has struggled despite a respectable 3.48 ERA. His xFIP of 4.63 suggests that he may have been fortunate this season, and with a low strikeout rate of 19.4 K%, he faces a tough test against a Padres lineup that strikes out the least in MLB. Baz’s projections indicate he may allow 2.1 earned runs over about 5.1 innings, but his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.4 walks could be problematic.

On the other mound, Randy Vasquez has not been impressive, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB with a 4.52 ERA and a concerning xERA of 5.82. He is projected to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, which could be just enough to keep the Rays competitive. However, his high walk rate of 1.6 may provide Tampa Bay’s struggling offense with opportunities.

Despite the Rays ranking 27th in MLB offense, their recent performance from Yandy Diaz, who has recorded 7 hits and 4 RBIs over the last week, could spark a resurgence. Meanwhile, the Padres’ Manny Machado continues to shine, contributing significantly to their 8th-ranked offense.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Rays hold a slight edge with a 57% win probability, hinting at potential value in betting on Tampa Bay. With a Game Total of 8.0 runs, this matchup could come down to which team capitalizes on pitching missteps and offensive opportunities.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Randy Vasquez has experienced a substantial increase in his fastball spin rate: from 2414 rpm over the entire season to 2479 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Despite posting a .367 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has had some very good luck given the .045 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Shane Baz has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -8.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Siri has strong power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (34.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Siri.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 73 of their last 120 games (+23.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 60 games (+15.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.20 Units / 205% ROI)