Game Breakdown: Padres vs Pirates Team Stats and Insights – August 8, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the San Diego Padres prepare for their matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 8, 2024, they’ll look to continue their winning ways after edging out the Pirates 9-8 in a thrilling contest yesterday. The Padres currently hold a solid record of 63-52, showcasing their strong season, particularly offensive prowess, ranking 9th in MLB overall. In contrast, the Pirates sit at a mediocre 56-57, struggling with a roster that ranks 28th in offensive production.

Luis Ortiz, projected to start for the Pirates, has had an up-and-down season, highlighted by a respectable ERA of 3.21. However, his 4.57 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, making him a potential liability against a powerful lineup like San Diego’s. Ortiz’s last outing was a struggle, as he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings. The projections indicate he’s expected to surrender 2.9 earned runs and allow a troubling 5.8 hits per game.

On the mound for the Padres, Randy Vasquez brings a 4.62 ERA into the game, which is considered average but somewhat inflated given his 5.91 xERA. However, he performed admirably in his last start, yielding just 1 earned run in 5 innings. With a low strikeout rate and facing a Pirates lineup that has the 5th most strikeouts in the league, Vasquez might find an opportunity to control the game.

THE BAT X projects the Padres to score an impressive 5.27 runs on average, while the Pirates are projected to manage 4.91 runs. Given the current odds, both teams have a high implied total of 4.50 runs, setting the stage for what could be another high-scoring affair. Overall, the Padres appear poised to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a vulnerable Pirates team, making them a slightly favorable option for today’s matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  With a 1.09 deviation between Randy Vasquez’s 5.92 K/9 and his 7.01 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to perform better in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kyle Higashioka has strong power (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Luis Ortiz has a pitch-to-contact profile (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Luis Ortiz’s 94.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 77th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 85.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 away games (+11.95 Units / 58% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+11.30 Units / 15% ROI)