Game Breakdown: Padres vs Cardinals Team Stats and Insights – August 26, 2024

San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium on August 26, 2024, both teams are looking to establish momentum early in this National League matchup. The Cardinals, sitting at 65-65, are hovering around the .500 mark and are aiming to build on a recent win against the Minnesota Twins where they edged out a 3-2 victory. Meanwhile, the Padres, boasting a 74-58 record, are enjoying a solid season and come off a similar 3-2 win against the Mets.

Starting for the Cardinals is Kyle Gibson, who, despite being labeled the 149th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has shown flashes of competence this year with a 7-5 record and a 4.22 ERA. However, his 5.04 xERA suggests he may have been riding his luck. Gibson’s recent performance also indicates some inconsistency, as he allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings in his last outing.

Randy Vasquez takes the mound for the Padres, but he has struggled this season with a 3-6 record and a 4.63 ERA, ranking among the less effective pitchers. His projections indicate he may struggle to go deep into the game, averaging just 4.8 innings pitched.

Offensively, the Padres are thriving, with their batting average ranking 1st in MLB, while the Cardinals find themselves at 20th overall. Nevertheless, projections suggest a closely contested matchup, with the Cardinals being expected to score 4.67 runs against Vasquez, and the Padres projected to score 4.69 runs against Gibson. This sets the stage for what could be an exciting opener in their series, amplified by the close odds indicating a tight battle ahead.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Recording 14.4 outs per start this year on average, Randy Vasquez falls in the 10th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, compiling a .373 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .052 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Projected catcher Kyle Higashioka projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kyle Gibson’s change-up percentage has fallen by 7.9% from last year to this one (17% to 9.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters collectively rank near the cellar of the majors this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 48 games at home (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games at home (+8.90 Units / 24% ROI)