Game Breakdown: Marlins vs Mets Head-to-Head Insights 4/7/2025

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins on April 7, 2025, at Citi Field in a key National League East matchup. Both teams are off to solid starts this season, with the Mets holding a 6-3 record and the Marlins at 5-4. In their last games, the Mets edged out their opponent with a 2-1 victory, while the Marlins enjoyed a convincing 4-0 win.

Scheduled to take the mound for the Mets is Kodai Senga, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.8 innings today. Despite a rocky start to his season with a 0-1 record, Senga has a respectable ERA of 3.60 and has shown potential with an elite projection of allowing only 1.8 earned runs. His last outing on April 1 saw him go 5 innings with 2 earned runs and 8 strikeouts, highlighting his ability to limit damage despite having allowed 4.0 hits on average.

On the other side, Tyler Phillips will start for the Marlins. He struggled mightily in his last appearance, allowing 6 earned runs over just 1 inning pitched, a performance that certainly raises concerns heading into this matchup. His projections indicate a challenging day ahead, with an expected 4.2 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Mets have been underwhelming, ranking 43rd in MLB, which is concerning given their current form. In contrast, the Marlins have slightly better rankings but still sit in the bottom tier of the league. With the Mets as heavy favorites and an implied team total of 4.23 runs, they will look to capitalize on the Marlins’ pitching struggles and continue their successful start to the season.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Tyler Phillips – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Phillips to throw 65 pitches today (least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme flyball bats like Derek Hill are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kodai Senga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Griffin Conine, Matt Mervis).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kodai Senga in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Siri has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (35.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Phillips struggles to strike batters out (1st percentile K%) — great news for Siri.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 67 of their last 117 games (+16.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)