Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
(-105/-115)-135
As the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers gear up for Game 4 of their National League Division Series matchup on October 9, 2024, the stakes are high. Both teams are looking to advance in the postseason, with each having showcased their prowess throughout the season. The Dodgers boast the best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in overall offense, 4th in team batting average, and 2nd in home runs. The Padres, not far behind, have a 6th-ranked offense and lead the league in batting average, making this an exciting clash at Petco Park.
In the previous game on October 8, the Padres edged out the Dodgers in a nail-biter, winning 6-5, which adds even more intensity to this crucial game. The Padres’ Dylan Cease, who ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB, takes the mound against the Dodgers’ Ryan Brasier, expected to start despite his primarily bullpen role this season.
Cease has had a solid year with a 14-11 record and a commendable 3.47 ERA, though he was roughed up in his last start, allowing five earned runs in just three innings. Despite being a high-flyball pitcher, Cease will need to be cautious today, given the Dodgers’ power threat. Conversely, Brasier, though average by ranking, has been effective in limited appearances, maintaining a 3.54 ERA.
The Padres hold a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 52% chance to win. However, the market is even more optimistic about the Padres, assigning them a 55% implied win probability. San Diego’s potent offense, fueled recently by Fernando Tatis Jr., coupled with a dominant bullpen ranked 2nd in Power Rankings, might just give them the upper hand. While the Dodgers aren’t far behind with the 5th-best bullpen, the Padres’ recent form makes them a compelling choice for bettors looking for an edge in this tightly contested series.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)The switch-hitting Tommy Edman will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side (0) today against Dylan CeaseExplain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the San Diego Padres.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+20.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 62 games (+20.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+9.95 Units / 23% ROI)