Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Giants
(-120/+100)+115
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 14, 2025, both teams are in the midst of important stretches in their seasons. The Giants, sitting at 75-73, are having an average year and find themselves in a must-win situation against their rivals. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, with a record of 83-65, are enjoying a solid season and are currently positioned well for a playoff run.
In their most recent matchup, the Dodgers emerged victorious, which adds to the pressure on the Giants as they look to even the series. The Giants will send Robbie Ray to the mound, who has had an average season with a 3.32 ERA and a 11-6 record over 30 starts. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as his 4.23 xFIP indicates potential regression. Ray’s tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks per outing could be a concern, especially against a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 4th in MLB.
Tyler Glasnow, slated to pitch for the Dodgers, has struggled to find consistency with a 2-3 record in just 15 starts, but his 3.21 ERA reflects his potential. The projections suggest he should fare well today, allowing only 2.4 earned runs on average.
The Giants’ offense, ranked 20th in MLB, faces a daunting task against the Dodgers’ elite pitching staff, which is ranked 1st in the league. With both teams showcasing contrasting strengths, this matchup is pivotal for San Francisco as they fight to stay competitive in a tight series. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a tight contest, and the Giants are looking to defy the odds after being given a low implied team total of 3.53 runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Tyler Glasnow has relied on his sinker 9.9% more often this season (18.6%) than he did last season (8.7%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.2-mph average last year has dropped to 81.8-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 20.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Robbie Ray’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.1-mph drop off from last season’s 94-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.271) may lead us to conclude that Wilmer Flores has had some very good luck this year with his .301 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineThe San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+14.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.95 Units / 87% ROI)