Game Breakdown: Cardinals vs Giants Team Stats and Insights – September 23, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals at Oracle Park on September 23, 2025, both teams enter this matchup with identical records of 77-80, reflecting an average season for both squads. The Giants’ pitching ace, Logan Webb, has been stellar this year, and he is projected to start today. In his last outing, Webb pitched a complete game shutout, further solidifying his status as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a Win/Loss record of 14-11 and an impressive ERA of 3.27, Webb has been a reliable force for San Francisco.

In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who has struggled throughout the season, evidenced by his 6-15 record and a subpar ERA of 5.29. Pallante’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs, which underscores his below-average status as a pitcher. The Cardinals’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, and their lack of power—28th in home runs—could be a significant disadvantage against a high-groundball pitcher like Webb.

The Giants’ offense does not fare much better, ranking 22nd overall, but they hold a slight edge in team home runs compared to the Cardinals. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tight contest. Additionally, with the Giants favored at a moneyline of -195, they carry an implied team total of 4.32 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Pallante’s struggles. The Cardinals, sitting at +165, are projected to score a modest 3.18 runs, further emphasizing the uphill battle they face. With both teams eager to gain momentum, this matchup promises to be an intriguing contest.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andre Pallante’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (42.8% compared to 30.9% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.4 mph compared to last year’s 91.5 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Jimmy Crooks, Thomas Saggese).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starting pitchers, Logan Webb’s fastball spin rate of 2117 rpm ranks in the 14th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Willy Adames tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 104 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.20 Units / 61% ROI)