Game Breakdown: Athletics vs Astros Team Stats and Insights – May 28, 2025

Athletics

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on May 28, 2025, in the second game of their series. Both teams find themselves in contrasting situations in the American League West, with the Astros holding a record of 29-25, indicating an above-average season, while the Athletics sit at 23-32, struggling significantly this year.

In their previous matchup on May 27, the Astros dominated, winning 11-1, a result that highlights the disparity in form. The Astros’ offense ranks 14th overall in MLB, but they excel in batting average, sitting 9th in that category. However, they do lag behind in home runs, ranking 22nd, which could be a concern against an Athletics team that boasts the 7th best offense and is 8th in home runs.

On the mound, the Astros will start Lance McCullers Jr., who has had a rocky season with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 6.57. Despite this, projections indicate he could perform better than his current numbers suggest. McCullers is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings and allow approximately 2.4 earned runs. Conversely, Luis Severino will take the hill for the Athletics with a 1-4 record and a more respectable ERA of 4.11. His projections suggest he could pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, making him a slightly better option today.

With the Astros’ bullpen ranked 9th in MLB and the Athletics’ at 20th, the home team has an edge in relief pitching, which could play a crucial role if the game is close late. Betting odds currently favor the Astros with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their stronger overall performance and recent success against the Athletics.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+120)
  Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Denzel Clarke, C.J. Alexander, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Lance McCullers Jr. (47.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  From last season to this one, Jeremy Pena’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 91.3 mph to 88.6 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+10.42 Units / 20% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 34% ROI)