Game Breakdown: Angels vs Astros Head-to-Head Insights 9/22/2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels gear up for their matchup on September 22, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, there’s a stark contrast between the two teams’ seasons. The Astros, with an 85-70 record, are enjoying an above-average season and are leading the race for the American League West title. In contrast, the Angels, with a disappointing 62-93 record, are struggling near the bottom of the division.

The Astros took the series opener against the Angels with a 5-2 victory yesterday, a testament to their strong season. Houston’s offense, ranked 10th best overall and 3rd in batting average, is poised for another impressive performance. The Angels, whose offense ranks a dismal 26th overall, have found it challenging to keep pace with teams like Houston.

On the mound, the Astros will start Spencer Arrighetti, a right-handed pitcher with a 7-13 record and a 4.68 ERA. Despite a less-than-stellar win-loss record, Arrighetti’s xFIP of 4.05 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for better performance. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning, who holds a 6-13 record and a 5.16 ERA. With one of the worst overall rankings for a starting pitcher, Canning might struggle against the potent Astros lineup.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipates the Astros to have a significant edge in this game, projecting a win probability of 64%. With a high implied team total of 5.25 runs, their offense is expected to capitalize against Canning and an Angels bullpen that ranks 29th.

Astros’ fans will be keen to see Kyle Tucker, who’s been hot with a .500 average and a 1.411 OPS over the last week, to continue his excellent form. Meanwhile, Taylor Ward has been a bright spot for the Angels, hitting .321 with a 0.942 OPS over the same period. Despite the uphill battle, the Angels might hold some betting value, as they are projected to perform slightly better than the betting market suggests.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Logan O’Hoppe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Niko Kavadas, Logan O’Hoppe).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Spencer Arrighetti has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 81.3-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 7th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+17.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 101 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Nolan Schanuel has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.85 Units / 58% ROI)