Follow the Live Updates for Marlins vs Blue Jays – 9/27/2024

Miami Marlins

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Miami Marlins to Rogers Centre on September 27, 2024, both teams come into the game with challenging seasons behind them. The Blue Jays, sitting at 74-85, aren’t contending this year but look to finish strong after a solid 6-1 victory against the Red Sox on September 25. Meanwhile, the Marlins, struggling with a 59-100 record, managed to edge out the Twins 8-6 in their last contest.

Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays, coming off a commendable outing where he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run with six strikeouts. However, despite his impressive 16-10 record and a healthy 3.38 ERA, his 4.24 xFIP suggests some potential regression. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees him allowing 2.4 earned runs over 5.8 innings on average today, which could be favorable given the Marlins’ 29th-ranked offense.

Opposing Berrios is Adam Oller, who has had a tough year with a 1-4 record and a 5.06 ERA. Despite limiting the damage to two earned runs in his previous outing, Oller’s high fly-ball tendency might give him an edge against a Blue Jays lineup lacking in power, ranking 25th in home runs.

Toronto’s offense, projected to score 5.08 runs, is powered by standout Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who boasts a .325 average and a .947 OPS. However, Jonatan Clase has been their hottest hitter recently, batting .500 over the last week. In contrast, the Marlins’ offense, projected at 3.88 runs, leans on Jake Burger, with Jonah Bride stepping up of late, hitting .348 with two home runs in the past week.

With the Blue Jays heavily favored by both betting odds and projections, they’ll aim to capitalize on Miami’s vulnerabilities, particularly with the Marlins sending one of the league’s weakest bullpens to face Toronto’s balanced attack.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Adam Oller has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.96 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.42 — a 0.53 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Over the last 14 days, Kyle Stowers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-230)
  The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Nathan Lukes will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 75 away games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Leonardo Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)