Follow the Live Updates for Cubs vs White Sox – 8/9/2024

Chicago Cubs

@

Chicago White Sox

On August 9, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams are looking to shake off their respective struggles, with the White Sox enduring a dismal season at 28-89, while the Cubs stand at a more average 57-60. This game serves as the opening of their series, and both teams are coming off contrasting results in their previous games, with the White Sox narrowly losing to the Athletics 3-2, and the Cubs triumphing over the Twins 8-2.

The pitching matchup features Garrett Crochet for the White Sox, who has been labeled as an elite arm in MLB, ranking 5th according to advanced metrics. While he has a respectable 3.19 ERA this year, his 2.60 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve as the season progresses. Crochet’s low walk rate (6.3 BB%) might limit the Cubs’ ability to capitalize on their patient approach, which ranks 5th in walks.

In contrast, Jameson Taillon, projected to start for the Cubs, has had a below-average season. Although he boasts a solid 3.25 ERA, his 4.20 xFIP indicates he could be due for regression. Additionally, Taillon’s tendency to allow fly balls could work against him, especially since the White Sox have struggled to hit for power, ranking 28th in home runs.

The projections indicate a narrower margin than what the betting odds suggest, with the White Sox’s win probability sitting at 51%, presenting potential value in betting on them as underdogs at +125. With both teams looking to build momentum, this matchup will be critical for the White Sox as they aim to turn their season around.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 60% of the time, checking in at the 81st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  There has been a decrease in Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity this year, from 86.9 mph last year to 84.8 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Garrett Crochet has produced a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2489 rpm over the whole season to 2544 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Based on Statcast data, Nicky Lopez is in the 0th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at .000.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+4.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 110 games (+9.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)