Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)-145
As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 31, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Twins are enjoying an above-average season with a record of 73-61, while the Blue Jays languish below .500 with a 66-71 record. This game marks the second matchup in the series, following a competitive battle where the Twins emerged victorious.
The pitching matchup features Zebby Matthews for the Twins and Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays. Matthews, a right-handed pitcher, has had a solid year, holding an ERA of 3.00 after starting three games, although his 4.27 xFIP suggests some potential regression. He will face a Blue Jays offense that has struggled, ranking 27th in MLB in home runs and batting average. This could bode well for Matthews, as he typically gives up a higher percentage of fly balls.
On the other side, Berrios has been more consistent this season, with a record of 13-9 and an ERA of 3.72. However, his own 4.35 xFIP indicates that he may also be living on borrowed time. The projections suggest that the Twins will score an average of 5.30 runs in this matchup, benefiting from a potent offense ranked 6th in MLB.
Advanced metrics highlight that the Twins’ bullpen is rated 17th, while the Blue Jays’ bullpen falls to 23rd, indicating another advantage for Minnesota. With the Twins as betting favorites at -150, and the projections hinting at a closer game than the moneyline suggests, there may be an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on the potential value of the Blue Jays as underdogs.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Jose Berrios has tallied 18.3 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.8% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)Willi Castro is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Minnesota’s 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #22 team in the game this year by this standard.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 53 away games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 36% ROI)