Follow Live Updates on White Sox vs Red Sox – Saturday, September 7th, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Boston Red Sox

On September 7, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Chicago White Sox in the second game of their series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 71-70, are having an average season and are not in contention for the division title. Meanwhile, the White Sox, with a dismal record of 32-110, are struggling significantly and are unlikely to make a playoff push. In their previous matchup, the Red Sox secured a victory over the White Sox by a score of 3-1, further highlighting the disparity between these two teams.

The projections suggest that the Red Sox will have the upper hand, especially with Cooper Criswell on the mound. Although Criswell ranks as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB, he faces a White Sox lineup that has been underwhelming, ranking 30th in offensive performance this season. Criswell’s ability to induce ground balls (49% GB rate) could mitigate the White Sox’s lack of power, as they have hit just 90 home runs this year, the 3rd least in MLB.

Conversely, Garrett Crochet, projected to start for the White Sox, is having a rough year despite ranking as the 3rd best starting pitcher in the league. His last outing on September 1 was abbreviated, lasting only 3 innings, which raises concerns about his effectiveness. The Red Sox offense, ranked 6th overall and 4th in batting average, should capitalize on Crochet’s struggles.

Overall, with the Red Sox’s strong offensive metrics and the White Sox’s ongoing issues, Boston is a solid favorite in this matchup. The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Red Sox have a favorable chance to take the win, reflecting their current momentum and the White Sox’s continuing difficulties.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Garrett Crochet to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 72 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Miguel Vargas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cooper Criswell must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot this year: 71.3% of the time, ranking in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Tyler O’Neill has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O’Neill, Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 59 away games (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.95 Units / 29% ROI)