Chicago Cubs
Cleveland Guardians
(+100/-120)+100
As the Chicago Cubs visit Progressive Field to face the Cleveland Guardians on August 12, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in what is shaping up to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Guardians, boasting a strong record of 69-49, currently sit in a comfortable position, while the Cubs are hovering around .500 at 59-60. Both clubs come off recent victories, with the Guardians edging out the Minnesota Twins 5-3 and the Cubs defeating the White Sox 3-1 in their latest contests.
The Guardians are projected to start right-hander Ben Lively, who has had a solid season with a 3.59 ERA but is ranked as the 224th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating some underlying struggles. Lively has shown inconsistency, as evidenced by his last outing where he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings. Meanwhile, the Cubs counter with lefty Shota Imanaga, who has been impressive this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 9-2 win/loss record, positioning him as the 58th best starter in the league.
Offensively, the Guardians rank 15th in MLB, showcasing an average batting lineup led by star hitter José Ramírez, who has been in great form recently. In his last 7 games, Ramírez has notched 9 hits and 2 home runs, maintaining a strong OPS of .938. The Cubs, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, ranking 18th overall and 23rd in batting average. Their best performer, Ian Happ, has had a decent season but hasn’t been able to elevate the offense significantly.
The projections for this game show a close contest, with the Guardians slightly favored. The Guardians have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Cubs sit at 4.10. With both teams seeking to establish dominance in this series opener, fans can expect an exciting matchup at Progressive Field.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Shota Imanaga’s 2440-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 86th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Cody Bellinger has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)In today’s game, Seiya Suzuki is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 42% rate (100th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Projected catcher Austin Hedges projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 104 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1300/-10000)Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 19 away games (+19.00 Units / 100% ROI)