Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Royals vs Tigers – 8/1/24

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

As the Kansas City Royals travel to Comerica Park to face the Detroit Tigers on August 1, 2024, both teams are heading in different directions in the standings. The Royals sit comfortably above .500 at 60-49, while the Tigers languish at 52-57, presenting a clear illustration of their contrasting seasons. Notably, the Royals are coming off a dominant 10-3 victory against the Chicago White Sox, while the Tigers suffered a frustrating shutout loss, falling 5-0 to the Cleveland Guardians just two days ago.

Keider Montero, projected to start for the Tigers, has struggled this season, ranking as the 287th best starting pitcher in MLB with a dismal 1-4 record and a 6.38 ERA. Montero’s performance has been characterized by a tendency to allow a high number of hits and earned runs, which sets the stage for a challenging matchup against the Royals’ well-rounded lineup. The projections suggest Montero may only pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing roughly 2.9 earned runs, which could spell trouble for a Tigers team that already ranks 26th in MLB offense.

On the other side, the Royals are set to counter with Seth Lugo, who boasts an impressive 12-5 record and a strong 2.66 ERA. Lugo’s ability to limit damage and his experience have made him an asset to Kansas City’s success this season. Additionally, Lugo has had a solid season against low-strikeout teams, as the Tigers rank among the lower tiers in terms of offensive output.

While Las Vegas currently lists the Royals as favorites with a moneyline of -155, they might be undervaluing their chances. According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor Kansas City at a 57% probability to win, while the Tigers are forecasted at just 43%. This matchup could provide an opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on their current form and the struggles of the Tigers, setting the stage for a competitive series opener.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)
  Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Kyle Isbel has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 70.5-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Keider Montero has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -8.6 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Zach McKinstry has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .177 figure is quite a bit lower than his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Bligh Madris, Ryan Kreidler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-150/+115)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI)